Investment Decisions

What rate of return should I aim for with my investments?

There isn't a magic number, and chasing one is usually the wrong first move. The return that fits your plan is a by-product of two better questions: what does your money actually need to do for you, and how much of a temporary drop can you genuinely live with?

Many people want a simple answer here: just tell me the percent. I understand the urge. You see a headline about what the market averaged, or you hear what a neighbor's account did last year, and you start wondering whether you're getting what you should.

But the rate of return that fits your plan isn't a target you pick from a list. It's the result of decisions that come first. Before any number means anything, you have to know how long each pool of your money needs to last and what kind of swings you can actually ride out without selling at the wrong moment.

Three filters that replace the single number

How long does each pool of money need to last? Not all of your dollars have the same job. Money you'll spend in the next few years, money that carries you through the middle of retirement, and money you won't touch for fifteen years call for different levels of risk. One blended "target return" flattens all of that into a number that fits none of it.

How much volatility can you honestly live with? Ask yourself how much temporary loss you can watch before you'd feel compelled to sell. The honest answer is more useful than any model, because a portfolio you abandon in a bad year never earns its long-run average.

What does the plan actually require? Sometimes the plan needs less than you'd guess. If your spending is covered at a modest growth rate, taking extra risk buys you stress you don't need. Sometimes it's the reverse, and the honest conversation is about saving more or adjusting the timeline rather than reaching for return.

Better questions than the ones we usually ask

| Instead of asking | Ask this |
|---|---|
| What rate of return should I get? | What does my plan require from these dollars? |
| How did my neighbor's account do? | How much of a drop can I tolerate, financially and emotionally? |
| What did the market average last year? | Is each pool of money invested to match its job and timeline? |

When you work through those, the return question mostly answers itself. The portfolio gets built to match the jobs your money has to do, and the return it produces is the one that fits your plan rather than a number borrowed from someone else's.

This is general educational information. Investment, tax, and legal recommendations should be based on your full situation.

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Updated 2026-08-12 by David Talley, CFP®, EA