1
The risk hiding in plain sight
Sequence of returns risk is the reason two people with identical portfolios and identical average returns can end up in completely different places.
Free guide
Are You Actually On Track?
A plain-English framework for understanding what your retirement number really means, and the two risks most people never account for until the decision is close.
15
minute read
5
planning questions
1
worksheet
Use the calculator first
Start with the number. Then understand what the number leaves out.
The calculator gives you the rough math. The guide helps you think through the missing pieces: taxes, timing, risk, spending stages, and whether your plan can survive the real world.
Try the retirement calculatorThe guide helps answer
How much annual income the portfolio actually needs to produce
Whether the number changes after Social Security, pensions, or part-time work
How taxes change the value of different account types
Why early market returns matter more once withdrawals start
What has to be true for the plan to feel durable, not just mathematically possible
What's inside
What the guide helps you see.
2
The quiet risk on the other side
Playing it too safe has consequences too. A retirement number has to survive inflation, spending changes, taxes, and the reality of a long life.
3
What your withdrawal rate actually means
The 4% rule is a starting point, not a plan. Your age, health, account types, and income sources all change what is reasonable.
4
The tax question almost nobody asks
A million dollars in a traditional IRA and a million dollars in a Roth are not the same thing. The account wrapper changes the real value.
5
How to build backwards from your actual life
The guide walks through the real inputs: spending, timing, risk, taxes, and the decisions that shape whether the plan holds up.
The number is not the plan. The plan is the plan. The number is just what falls out of it when you do the work honestly.
David Talley, CFP® · Talley Wealth · Johnson City, TN
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You can open the PDF directly here, then come back to run the calculator with your own numbers.